Final self-assessment: apply judgment across contexts

Allow 10–15 minutes. All materials are fictional. Answer independently before viewing explanations. Drafts stay in this browser, separately per language.

1. Is there support for sharing the accusation against the whole group?

Public incident: An unverified video reportedly shows one visitor damaging a facility. A post says, “These visitors are all uncivilized. Not sharing means enabling them!” No other cases or group data are supplied.

Your judgment Yes: one video establishes group traits No, and the video must be fake No: a case and pressure do not support a group-wide claim

Reason for your judgment One person does not represent a group; moral pressure is not evidence Emotional messages are always unreliable Disagreement makes judgment impossible

2. Does the notice support a citywide suspension today?

City notice: On August 6, 2025, a chat claims all city bike services are suspended today. The original screenshot concerns one day of maintenance at East Station on August 6, 2024. No current notice is supplied.

Your judgment Yes: it bears an official logo No: the date and scope differ No, so every station must be open today

Reason for your judgment Last year’s notice applies by default The screenshot has been widely shared It concerns one station last year; current status needs checking

3. How should “25% less time” be interpreted?

Product comparison: With the same file and settings, the old device took 120 minutes and the new device 90. An ad says, “25% less time—faster for every job.” Other files and settings were not tested.

Your judgment 30 minutes less in this test, not a guarantee across conditions 25 percentage points less 30 minutes less under all conditions

Reason for your judgment Divide by the new 90-minute time (120−90)/120=25%, within the tested conditions Relative changes need no test conditions

4. Can all the sales increase be attributed to the new policy?

Workplace policy: Monthly sales rose 20% after flexible hours began. Two salespeople were added and a discount campaign ran that month. There was no comparison group. The manager attributes the entire increase to the policy.

Your judgment Yes: the policy came first No, so the policy had no effect No: concurrent changes have not been distinguished

Reason for your judgment Promotions and added staff may contribute; comparable evidence is needed Any alternative explanation must be true Before–after data are always useless

5. Do the three news articles provide three independent measurements?

News packet A: A headline says, “New route halves citywide commutes, confirmed by three outlets!” B: All three articles cite one transport department statement without additional measurement. C: The statement observed average morning-peak waiting times at two stops on one weekday before and one after opening, falling from 12 to 6 minutes. No comparison stops, other dates, routes or journey times were recorded.

Your judgment Yes: different outlets are independent measurements No: they share the same measurement source No, so waiting time did not change

Reason for your judgment All cite the same transport department statement Original sources are always correct Changes in averages are always false

6. Write a bounded conclusion

Using the news packet in question 5, write a shareable summary, calculate the change, identify source, scope and causal limits, then justify whether to share it and what to check next.

I have completed this section (reversible)

A personal completion record, not certification.