Final assessment: revise judgments in new contexts

Five fresh scenarios and a written decision record test transfer of judgment methods.

All scenarios are fictional and need no industry knowledge. Answer independently before viewing explanations. Written work is not automatically scored.

1. You search only “Mountain View Inn quiet” and ignore negative reviews’ dates and room types. What next? Find ten more positive reviews Compare both kinds using the same date, room-type and source criteria Treat all negative reviews as facts

2. A used camera is listed at 6,000 and offered at 4,000. Condition and comparable sales are unknown. Best judgment? Buy because it is one-third cheaper Below list means below market Compare completed sales with matched model, condition and accessories

3. You hear three delay stories in a week without flight totals. Can you rank airlines? No: obtain counts and denominators for the same period and definition Yes: more stories mean a higher rate No, so delays must be rare

4. You assign 90% confidence to twelve forecasts of varied difficulty; nine resolve correctly. Which interpretation fits? You are permanently overconfident This batch is 75%; collect more comparable records to assess calibration The next prediction must have 75% probability

5. A non-refundable course cost 600. Continuing needs eight hours; equivalent self-study needs five, with equal expected goal value and no switching cost. How compare? Continuing recovers the 600 Any sunk cost requires stopping Compare eight versus five future hours and verify the assumptions

Integrated decision record

You organize a photo exhibition. Printed posters are non-refundable. A venue gives a one-day confirmation deadline but no capacity details. You read only in-person success stories and estimate no more preparation. Propose a provisional plan and evidence that could change it.

State goals, alternatives, future costs, checks and revision conditions

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Completion is a personal record, not proof of mastery or certification.