Learning path two · Judgment and decisions

Cognitive biases: examine your own judgment

Six lessons and a cross-context assessment on contrary evidence, independent estimates, confidence and future costs.

For readers ready to examine their thinking as well as external information. The information-judgment path is helpful but not required.

Allow 15–20 minutes per lesson and 10–15 for the assessment. Study at your own pace. All cases are fictional.

From initial judgment to supported revision

1. 1. Confirmation bias: checking or seeking agreement?

   Turn a preferred conclusion into a testable question and specify evidence that could change it.

2. 2. Anchoring: did the first number set your estimate?

   Build an independent estimate before evaluating an outside number.

3. 3. Availability: does memorable mean common?

   Replace recalled cases with comparisons specifying time, scope and denominators.

4. 4. Overconfidence: make certainty checkable

   Record confidence and acceptance criteria before checking outcomes.

5. 5. Sunk cost: does past effort justify continuing?

   Separate unrecoverable effort from costs and benefits that still change with your choice.

6. 6. Integrated revision: preserve your first judgment, then update

   Produce a decision record with an initial view, contrary evidence, future costs and review triggers.

7. Final assessment: transfer to new contexts

   Accommodation, cameras, flights, predictions and course choices, with explanations after submission.

Your final artifact

A decision record preserving your initial view, evidence, reasons for revision and review conditions. Drafts are stored separately by language in this browser; completion progress is shared. Lessons support export.