Cognitive biases and judgment · 1/6

Confirmation bias: checking or seeking agreement?

Turn a preferred conclusion into a testable question and specify evidence that could change it.

About 15–20 minutes. The following cases are fictional.

Record your first judgment

You want to cancel weekly team meetings. You search only for “meetings waste time,” save three supportive articles and omit the coordination work those meetings perform.

My initial judgment, confidence and reasons

Understand the judgment process

Confirmation bias involves searching for or interpreting information in ways favoring an existing belief. The issue is whether your process permits contrary findings, not whether cancelling meetings is right.

Reading only opponents is not a cure. Apply the same relevance, source and method standards to both sides. Equal numbers of arguments are unnecessary; quality matters.

Replace proving yourself right with observations that distinguish explanations. Considering the opposite has support in specific experiments, not a guarantee that this course eliminates bias.

Checks you can perform

Record your initial judgment and reasons before searching.
Name a competing explanation: meetings take time but may reduce repeated coordination.
Set revision conditions and evaluate supportive and contrary evidence by the same standards.
Keep search and exclusion notes; explain relevance rather than counting articles.

Guided practice

Rewrite the search question neutrally. Propose two observations that could support either cancelling or retaining meetings.

My analysis and checking plan

Explore the explanation

Ask how meetings affect total coordination time, rework and missed handoffs. Compare similar task periods using meeting plus ad hoc communication time and coordination failures. Lower total time without more failures supports cancellation; higher ad hoc costs and failures warrant reconsideration. Calendar meeting hours alone are insufficient.

Apply it in a new context

You like a note-taking app and save only positive reviews. Three trial days remain. Design a test that could make you reject it, with success and failure criteria.

My independent response

Compare after attempting

Try importing non-sensitive sample files, searching offline and exporting. Require usable formats and intact essential information beforehand. If necessary needs fail, consider alternatives despite liking the interface. Do not lower standards afterward or reject everything over an irrelevant defect.

Preserve a revision record

What changed your judgment? What still supports it? When will you review?

Signs of selective checking do not diagnose motives. Good evidence may still support the initial view.

Check whether you supplied inspectable evidence, a feasible next step and revision conditions. Revealing an answer is not mastery.

Source and scope

Lord, Lepper & Preston (1984), Considering the opposite

The source provides conceptual or methodological background. Cases, steps and exercises are authored here; they are not the original experiment or evidence of this course’s effectiveness.

I have completed this section; uncheck to undo

Completion is a personal record, not proof of mastery or certification.