Cognitive biases and judgment · 2/6

Anchoring: did the first number set your estimate?

Build an independent estimate before evaluating an outside number.

About 15–20 minutes. The following cases are fictional.

Record your first judgment

A supplier quotes 12,000, then reduces the price to 8,000. It feels like a bargain, although scope and alternative quotes remain unchecked.

My initial judgment, confidence and reasons

Understand the judgment process

An initial number can pull subsequent judgments toward it, with insufficient adjustment. Examine the basis of the estimate instead of assuming manipulation.

A quote may contain valid information. Distinguish cost breakdowns and comparable transactions from unexplained list prices, rather than ignoring every first number.

After seeing an anchor, independence is difficult to guarantee. Estimating beforehand and using relevant comparisons are procedures to practice, not guaranteed psychological switches.

Checks you can perform

Estimate a range from needs, workload and necessary costs first.
Record assumptions and unknowns.
Compare scope-matched quotes, including quality, timing and extras.
Update using relevant evidence instead of applying an arbitrary discount to the initial quote.

Guided practice

Three independent scope-matched quotes are 7,500, 8,500 and 9,000. The supplier reduced 12,000 to 8,000. What can and cannot be concluded?

My analysis and checking plan

Explore the explanation

8,000 is within the supplied comparison range and 4,000 below the supplier’s initial quote. The list price alone does not prove value, nor do three quotes establish a true price. Check delivery reliability, service scope and budget; the average is not a uniquely correct price.

Apply it in a new context

A colleague says a project will certainly take three days. You have not estimated it. How do you check independently?

My independent response

Compare after attempting

Break down tasks, dependencies, review and contingency; consult completed comparable projects. Produce a range and assumptions before asking for the three-day estimate’s basis. Simply adding a day or two is not an independent estimate.

Preserve a revision record

What changed your judgment? What still supports it? When will you review?

Agreement with another estimate need not be anchoring: both may use the same relevant evidence.

Check whether you supplied inspectable evidence, a feasible next step and revision conditions. Revealing an answer is not mastery.

Source and scope

Tversky & Kahneman (1974), Judgment under Uncertainty

The source provides conceptual or methodological background. Cases, steps and exercises are authored here; they are not the original experiment or evidence of this course’s effectiveness.

I have completed this section; uncheck to undo

Completion is a personal record, not proof of mastery or certification.