Decision methods · 1/6

Define the goal before choosing

Separate an observable outcome, hard constraints and preferences.

About 15–20 minutes. The following cases are fictional.

Record your first judgment

You want to learn data analysis and compare courses by volume, certificates and coaching. You have six weeks at four hours a week; your actual need is an independent work report.

My initial judgment, confidence and reasons

Understand the judgment process

A course is a means. Define what you must deliver: clean a raw table, explain three metrics and produce an auditable report. Hours watched or certificates do not establish that outcome.

Constraints determine eligibility; preferences compare eligible options. If four weekly hours is a hard limit, a course requiring eight cannot compensate with a high score elsewhere. Verify constraints rather than treating every fear as established.

Name affected people, the decision deadline and the outcome horizon. Depth, speed and effort can conflict. Specify a minimum acceptable result before pursuing additional benefits.

Checks you can perform

Describe the real-world result, not the product.
Define a deadline and minimum acceptable outcome.
Separate constraints, preferences and unresolved conditions.
Check agreement with affected people.

Guided practice

Rewrite “choose the best course” as a goal, two constraints and a preference.

My analysis and checking plan

Explore the explanation

Deliver an auditable report in six weeks; require at most four weekly hours and compatibility with the current computer; prefer project feedback. Verify workload and access rather than trusting promotional labels.

Apply it in a new context

For an event venue, how should capacity, decoration and accessible entry be treated?

My independent response

Compare after attempting

If all 30 participants must attend, capacity and the required access are constraints to verify. Decoration may be a preference; it cannot compensate for excluding participants.

Preserve a revision record

What changed your judgment? What still supports it? When will you review?

Constraints should reflect actual requirements. If negotiable, state the cost of changing them rather than silently treating them as scores.

Check whether you supplied inspectable evidence, a feasible next step and revision conditions. Revealing an answer is not mastery.

Source and scope

Herbert A. Simon — Rational Decision-Making in Business Organizations (1978)

The source provides conceptual or methodological background. Cases, steps and exercises are authored here; they are not the original experiment or evidence of this course’s effectiveness.

I have completed this section; uncheck to undo

Completion is a personal record, not proof of mastery or certification.