Learning path five · Judgment and decisions

Decision methods: choose under uncertainty

Six lessons, a decision workbench and a cross-context assessment turn reasoning into reviewable action.

Start with goals and constraints, compare options, check consequential unknowns and plan the next step. No mathematics or coding prerequisites.

Allow 15–20 minutes per lesson and 10–15 for the assessment. Cases and numbers are fictional teaching materials.

From a question to action and review

1. 1. Define the goal before choosing

   Separate an observable outcome, hard constraints and preferences.

2. 2. Create options beyond yes or no

   Develop genuinely different actions and include the status quo.

3. 3. Compare trade-offs without hiding them

   Use common scales, opportunity costs and weighted scores cautiously.

4. 4. Gather information that could change the action

   Prioritize consequential unknowns and set a stopping rule.

5. 5. Preserve an exit before committing

   Distinguish reversible steps and design bounded trials.

6. 6. Decision workbench: preserve the reasons

   Create a reviewable record and distinguish process quality from luck.

7. Final assessment: choose in new contexts

   Rooms, publishing, platforms and workflows, with explanations after submission.

Your final artifact

A decision record with goals, constraints, three options, score evidence, weight sensitivity, provisional action and review conditions. Drafts are local and language-specific; completion is shared. Export a copy.

Review causal reasoning