Learning path four · Judgment and decisions

Causal reasoning: what makes a difference?

Six lessons, an interactive comparison and a cross-context assessment for testing causal claims.

Move from the relationships in systems thinking to the evidence that could support them. No statistics or coding prerequisites.

Allow 15–20 minutes per lesson and 10–15 for the assessment. All cases and numbers are fictional teaching materials.

From observation to a testable explanation

1. 1. Association is a starting point, not a cause

   Turn an observed difference into a precise, testable causal question.

2. 2. Look for common causes

   Recognize pre-intervention confounding and compare overall with within-group results.

3. 3. Reverse arrows and missing people

   Distinguish reverse causation from selection and define who a result covers.

4. 4. Build a comparison: what if nothing changed?

   Separate before–after change from an effect and state comparison assumptions.

5. 5. Design a small experiment before seeing results

   Specify assignment, outcomes, follow-up and stopping rules.

6. 6. Write a causal explanation that could be wrong

   Combine observations, mechanisms, alternatives and a verification plan.

7. Final assessment: reason in new contexts

   Windows, deliveries, bootcamps, street lighting and registration pages; explanations follow submission.

Your final artifact

A causal review stating the claim, common causes, comparison assumptions, verification plan and evidence that could change your conclusion. Drafts are local and language-specific; completion is shared across languages. Export each lesson.

Review systems thinking