Learning path three · Judgment and decisions

Systems thinking: model relationships and change

Six lessons, a relationship editor, a feedback simulator and a cross-context assessment for reasoning about systems.

For readers examining how interacting factors produce outcomes. No mathematics or programming prerequisites.

Allow 15–20 minutes per lesson and 10–15 for the assessment. Study at your own pace. All cases are fictional.

From a problem to a testable systems model

1. 1. From events to systems: set a boundary

   Define goals, time horizon, stocks and flows.

2. 2. Draw relationships: arrows are hypotheses

   Label direction, polarity and delays in causal hypotheses.

3. 3. Recognize feedback: how change returns

   Distinguish reinforcing and balancing processes.

4. 4. See delays: why repeated adjustments can overshoot

   Separate observation and response delays and choose review intervals.

5. 5. Local optimization: faster for whom?

   Use net resolution and rework to examine local targets.

6. 6. Integrated modeling: design a testable intervention

   Map relationships, choose an intervention and define checks and stopping conditions.

7. Final assessment: transfer to new contexts

   Warehousing, complaints, word of mouth, deliveries and production, with explanations after submission.

Your final artifact

A systems record with boundaries, relationship assumptions, interventions and validation conditions. Drafts are stored separately by language in this browser; completion progress is shared. Lessons support export.