Systems thinking · 6/6

Integrated modeling: design a testable intervention

Map relationships, choose an intervention and define checks and stopping conditions.

About 15–20 minutes. The following cases are fictional.

Record your first judgment

Data: backlog 20, eight daily arrivals, capacity capped at twelve, with some rework. Demand changes and fatigue are unrecorded.

My initial judgment, confidence and reasons

Understand the judgment process

Separate observations, assumptions and unknowns. More capacity, less rework or different intake rules are options with distinct costs and side effects.

Simulation tests implications of stated assumptions; it does not choose correct real-world parameters. A qualitative diagram is not automatically a numerical model.

Checks you can perform

Record goal and boundary.
List two interventions and side effects.
Compare identical initial conditions in the simulator.
Choose a small trial and independent outcome measures.

Guided practice

Would you first test a higher cap or less rework? Explain evidence and evaluation.

My analysis and checking plan

Explore the explanation

Either can be reasonable. Check whether capacity is continuously capped and whether rework consumes much effort. Compare net resolution, quality and staff burden over a defined period with stop conditions. Model curves do not prove real benefits.

Apply it in a new context

New data show daily arrivals rising from eight to fifteen. How should the plan change?

My independent response

Compare after attempting

Update arrivals and check whether maximum net outflow can cope. If demand persistently exceeds capacity, faster response alone may not solve it; consider intake, scope or resources.

Preserve an intervention record

What changed your judgment? What still supports it? When will you review?

Preserve prior models and reasons for revision. Complexity does not automatically bring accuracy.

Check whether you supplied inspectable evidence, a feasible next step and intervention conditions. Revealing an answer is not mastery.

Source and scope

Donella Meadows — Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System

The source provides conceptual or methodological background. Cases, steps and exercises are authored here; they are not the original experiment or evidence of this course’s effectiveness.

I have completed this section; uncheck to undo

Completion is a personal record, not proof of mastery or certification.